Hasn't the weather been strange?!

 

Well, obviously you've seen the lake at St Francis Winery like this before --

-- in June or July or August. In winter, yes? But --

But this isn't winter. This is tickling the middle of December, two weeks from the height of the Christmas season. And after a cool, muggy, wet spring, we're now having a wet, stormy -- and intermittently bloody hot -- summer, which is far from what we expected when El Nino was announced, following three La Nina years. 

But ... well, apparently, this is the first time there's been a positive (or is it negative??) Indian Ocean Dipole at the same time. The Indian and Pacific Oceans are both warm (too warm!) at the same time, there's no place for the usual heat exchange to take place -- which is what causes the hot dry, burning conditions of the normal El Nino summer. And according to what I've read lately, no one really knows how this will play out in the real world, in real time.

Can we say "Climate change" yet? So...

As we go into our Christmas shopping, the whole region is on on flood alert! I find myself stretching my memory back over more than fifty years to think of the last time it rained until Christmas, and yes, I do remember this. 

In 1972, the weather settled in and it rained, and rained, and the rained some more. We were living at Glenelg at the time, and I recall slogging to and from school in endless drizzle and occasional downpours, right through the school year, which ended just as the Christmas season began. So, let's immortalize this moment ...

... with a screenshot from the BOM which tells all, and what it doesn't tell is encapsulated here, in the continuing forecast through to December 15:

And there's really no answer to that, is there? So we're just going to settle in and make Christmas preparations. The tree is up, presents are wrapped, 75% of the shopping is done. There's just the menu to arrange, then we're settled in for the season, such as it is. Dave has to work through Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve, same as always ... one learns to adapt. And anyway, Christmas is a time for home. 

Just as well, because this isn't the weather to be going anywhere! And as for the tree -- pretty as always. But we might get a new one next year...