Pandemics
have happened in the past, most notably in 1919, but the differences between
this one and previous events are marked. The population in 1919 is estimated to
be way under two billion; and the climate engine wasn’t broken. Coming out of
WWI, no one had to contend with global warming, El Nino, vast overpopulation,
crashing fish populations, oceans full of garbage, dangerous air quality, persistent drought, wildfires, unpredictable super-storms, imminent famine, the constant threat of nuclear escalation
… and a deep suspicion that the so-called “leader of the free world” isn’t on
the same page of the same script as the rest of us.
In 2020,
people have been contending with all of the above, and a lot more, for decades.
We’re cynical, weary, and many people (one wants to hazard, most?) are ready
for wide-scale change. The question is, what kind of change?
It’s not
news (and certainly no surprise) that the culprit in this current debacle is
actually capitalism. This is well documented: too little was done till much too
late, because government and industry were loath to compromise cash flow. This
much is also predictable. A pivot point of social change in our era is social
media: the culprits have been found out, information went viral. No one is left
in much doubt as to where blame lies ― but the middle of the pandemic isn’t the time
to be pointing fingers and dragging down governments. That’s the royal road to
anarchy, and no one can cope with anarchy added to the pandemic itself.
But like
all things, “this too shall pass.” Even without a vaccine, in two to three
years, the virus will burn itself out. The death toll will be a very small
percentage of the global population, which unfortunately equals an extremely large number of fatalities due to
our global population of 7.8 billion. And in fact, a vaccine is likely to be
along in 2021, stemming the tide, and raising the question ... where do we go from
here?
That will
be the time to point fingers, question individuals, government, and methods.
Capitalism itself should be under the lens. Only in countries where democracy
has failed utterly and the people have no voice, no power, will social change
be modest or even absent. Several countries are in this sad predicament; we know
which they are. No need to name them.
However, those countries are not the whole world; and in the zone known
as “rest of world,” one can expect social change.
The biggest and most prompt changes will need to be in emergency health care. While elective surgery (that
facelift, that liposuction) will always be on your buck, ER services should be
free, no ifs, ands or buts. Medical care should never be a cause of financial
ruin for anyone, no matter their income, or lack of it. Nations may organize
the means to this end however they want (and there are many ways), but health
care is a right, not a privilege. This has been demonstrated ad nauseam by the
pandemic, to the point where no sane person can argue it any further. Denying people prompt, free emergency care will only usher in the next pandemic (and there will be one; they've been happening since humanity clambered down out of the trees).
Transparency
and accountability at government and industry level will be a major change. Simply
stated: corruption and self-interest at every level are too dangerous. So we made
it through the 2020 pandemic ― but this crisis is far from unique or unknown. Since February, the
system itself is visibly unraveling. Like a ship steadily sinking under us, it
must be shored up if it (and we) are to survive and prosper.
Capitalism can,
and should, protect itself: rich folk desire to remain rich, and they can …
though perhaps not quite as rich as they once were. To date the super-wealthy
class have shown little or no acknowledgment of a “responsibility of compassion” to the
poorer citizens from whom their wealth was sourced. It’s time to give back ― or “pay forward.” Like health care,
nations may organize the means to this end however it suits them (and there are
just as many ways). But it begins with transparency and accountability. A clear
acknowledgment of a “responsibility of compassion,” plus regulations ensuring
that a minute fraction of the great wealth of such individuals and industries
is, indeed, “paid forward.” A minute fraction is all that’s needed: after
centuries of runaway capitalism, in 2020 their wealth is so immense, it’s
almost unimaginable.
The
Universal Income experiment has been run, past tense; and it works. Its per capita payments
seem paltry, but if it’s paid fairly ― to every individual below a certain income
threshold, including aged, disabled, children, unemployed ― then people can make the smart
decisions. The single person trying to eek out a living alone is, frankly, in
trouble. But what of the extended family (related by blood or not) sharing a large property, all caring
for each other? All members behaving like decent human beings, no one permitted
to be abusive ... predators and abusers quickly identified and dealt with either
within the caring family unit or by the law. In this model, even a paltry per
capita Universal Income is cumulative. A domestic collective can do very well
indeed.
In the
past, people have been reluctant to share their personal spare with others, preferring
to be alone at home, going out to work and socialize. Lockdown is teaching
people how lonely they really are. Many who recently wouldn’t have even considered living
as part of a collective might probably soon welcome the opportunity to join a
group, make new family among like-minded folk. Abusers, those domestic
predators, may soon be identified and rooted out. Their days should be
numbered (and candidly, about time).
Technology
is ramping up as 2020 plays out. More people are relying on the internet more
of the time, not merely for entertainment. Technology is stepping up to plug
the gaps in the workplace and at such disparate gatherings as weddings and
funerals. It’s technology’s opportunity to shine, to prove it can be an
indispensable tool for all in the future. Working from home will likely
continue long after the word “lockdown” becomes a memory. It benefits
employers, who can save on overhead, and those savings might be invested in a
larger workforce, greater productivity … ironically, capitalism can benefit by
not having workers in the workplace. Fewer people commuting also means less
smog, less fuel consumed, less requirement for fume-belching public transport ―
Over many
of the world’s major cities, we’re already seeing the sky turn blue for the
first time in decades. People may value this enough for them to want it every
day, not just during the pandemic; and there’s a way to do it. Out of this
desire for clear skies comes a readiness to accept electric cars, which
translates into enough sales to broaden the marketplace. Increased sales volumes should
drive down at-market prices, assuming the industry is subject to that
transparency and accountability, and immoral profit-taking is no longer acceptable.
(Profitability ― sure. But not robbery. Healthy capitalism, under control. Who decides profit margins? How about the people? Open forum, referendum. Try using technology to negotiate with people en masse rather than robbing them.)
This is
technology’s next opportunity to take the spotlight: when every car, truck, bus
and train is electric and charging on solar, air quality will visibly improve.
The next step is thorium power for ships (possibly also for aircraft; but
shipping is the most critical goal, since marine engines are generators of
unconscionable pollution). Bottom line: if we want blue skies, we can have
them, with a shift in attitude at the level of public, industry and government.
The pandemic can prepare the ground for this to happen.
Income is a
major concern, and it’s safe to say that some jobs will go away permanently.
For example, once people grow accustomed to shopping online for almost
everything, they might not flock back to physical stores, especially since prices tend to be higher there. Traditional retail could be a
casualty. On the other hand, as I write this, aged care is actively recruiting,
and as tech becomes a boom sector, IT could enjoy another golden age, as it did
in the 1990s. Certain jobs are simply due to dwindle away, pandemic or no, but
the virus will certainly hasten their end.
The biggest issue lies at government
level: the days when government could blame the unemployed for being unemployed
are gone. In fact, they’ve been gone for some considerable time, but our
obsolete politico-economic system has lumbered on, assigning blame where none actually existed.
Employment
(or the lack of it) is an area where social change must surely occur. If one is
jobless in a time and place where there are no jobs, one must be supported, not vilified. Certain people might never work
again, since, technology has rendered them superfluous. Not only have their
industries declined, there is no requirement for workers in the kind of
numbers seen in the past. Population growth plus tech equals a permanent
predicament where there are too many jobseekers, not enough jobs … which only
underscores the need for support, Universal Income, free medicine, free
education. The pandemic won’t have caused this situation, but it will have
hastened it.
We’ll see, in 2021, a job market we wouldn’t have expected to see for quite some time (though it was, in fact, always inevitable: robots are looming on the horizon; manual workers are due to be replaced, like it or not). One easy short-term remedy for job creation is to lower ― not raise! ― retirement age. Encourage people to take
retirement at 55-60; clear the way for younger job seekers. However, the age pension
must be much more generous, to allow mature-age people to step aside and make
jobs for youth. The funding for better age pensions is part of the greater
question of what to do with, and for, the countless people who will be surplus
to the workforce’s requirement in the years directly following the pandemic.
Even with
Universal Income and “domestic collective” lifestyles (groups of three or more, blood kin or not, sharing a home), money is likely to be short at street level,
where the vast majority of people live. Luxury goods will be the first off the
shopping list, and purveyors of these will be stranded. Certain industries
which rely on floods of dollars from poorer pockets, will suffer. Short of much
more generous Universal Income, there’s nothing to be done about this. If
government desires the arts to flourish, it will be compelled to offer
semi-regular stimulus payments to people under a certain income threshold. A
twice-yearly infusion of cash would go a long way to keeping publishers,
musicians, indie filmmakers and so forth, afloat … alas, a share of those
stimulus dollars will definitely go right to retailers of tobacco, alcohol and
drugs ― but tobacconists and publicans also read books, listen to music, watch
movies. If the incentive dollars filter through extra hands before the arts
feel their benefit, so be it. (Eventually, inevitably, the government gets the
whole amount back in endlessly layered taxes … and pays it out again in the
next round of incentives. The machine chugs along. Fluid dollars. Embrace the concept.)
In this
post-pandemic economic picture, uppermost on every mind save those of the
ultra-rich, will be the issue of waste. The First World
wastes everything. Water, food, power, time … lives. In good years, and
affluent places, this waste is invisible; or at least no one cares to notice.
When supermarket shelves are empty, and stories of wartime rationing begin to
circulate, “waste” as a concept is suddenly a tangible thing. If the
unemployment rate is indeed set to climb radically, and permanently, Universal
Income and “domestic collective” lifestyles can save wide swathes of the public
from hardship ― and ways to curb waste will be paramount.
Australians
are painfully aware of water restrictions in drought years. We’ve grown
accustomed to being frugal with power (turn if off when you’re not using it!), and
poor households have always budgeted tightly for food, while wasting little.
The major social change here is that far more people will have to learn thrift
… and a visible lack of thrift ought to be scorned. This should also apply to
politicians and local government staff, who have a shocking record for wasting
taxpayer and ratepayer funds on restaurants, booze, overseas trips.
Governments, now subject to the new transparency and accountability, won’t be able to
award themselves untenable pay rises and bonuses. It’s plausible that
politicians’ wages will come under scrutiny. Many (most, all?) might well take
an overdue pay cut, those funds being channeled into community coffers, to
help fuel the stimulus packages which keep alive the arts, and such luxury
sectors as our beloved café culture.
Food will
be high on the “waste not” list. Far too many people were reliant on food banks
and food stamps even before the pandemic, but the virus has forced so many
additional people into this situation, “food poverty” is rapidly become a major
issue. With ongoing high-level unemployment, the problem won’t go away. Social
change here isn't a "la-la-land" luxury, it's a necessity. It was once said that any country was “three meals
away from anarchy.” In certain places, this line has come and gone; anarchy
didn’t ensue. But … twelve meals from anarchy? Twenty meals? What level of starvation
is needed to trigger civil unrest? We don’t know. Sane, sensible people don’t want
to find out. Compassionate, intelligent government doesn’t blunder down that
road; it rides to the rescue by providing for its poor ― and poor people make their own contribution by adopting a “zero waste” policy.
Use
everything. Recycle and share. Do not “throw away” what you don’t want or need
… sell it on, donate it, recycle it. Got spare perishable food? Forget yourself for a change and feed someone
else. Got spare blankets or clothes? Donate them. The crass “throw it away” doctrine
of Japan’s
“Queen of Decluttering,” Marie Kondo, won’t fly in future. A world in which any
object more than a few months old, which one personally hasn’t read, watched or
used in that time, is consigned to landfill, needs to become anathema. One must acknowledge
our own “responsibility of compassion” … as well as the possibility of simply
not being able to replace chucked-away items (if only because we can’t afford
to buy something over and over, when we want/need it again). Lower income, plus reduced supply of luxury
goods equals profound uncertainty … caution becomes one of our watchwords, on a
personal level.
On a
national level, the watchwords should be “self reliance.” Take the so-called
Toilet Paper Apocalypse. Without a doubt, local panic buying was triggered by the
bogus information that our toilet paper comes from China,
and since the entire of China
would be “shut down” for years, our supply would soon run out. Wrong on every count. Chinese factories reopened in a matter of weeks (the time taken for
industrial cleaning, plus quarantine and workforce testing); most of China never shut down at all, and never all of it at the same time. Besides which, our
TP is supplied by our own, in-state factory! Panic got such a grip on people,
over-buying idiots, hoarders and black-marketeers were not to be stopped. They
drove demand up by 560%, and weeks later the shelves remain empty even though
our own factory is working flat out to resupply the folk who ran out entirely
while others hoarded hundreds of jumbo-size packs.
“Self
reliance,” nationally, is something government must nurture, and people must
grasp. If a nation, a state or region, can feed itself, and supply its own
water and power, it is halfway home. Social change will likely happen on this level,
as a result of the chaos we saw during the early stages of the pandemic, where
stores were emptied out by selfish, ill-informed buyers. People need to know
where their goods are coming from; government needs to encourage local
manufacture. There's the end to the need for panic buying, unless one is a complete fool ... in which case, store-driven regulations must be in place immediately, to stop the rot before it runs away. This didn't happen in 2020 till too late. Lesson learned.
Of course one will always be able to buy something on eBay, AliExpress
or Amazon, from the other side of the world … but you need to know that your region
is self-sufficient in terms of life’s necessities. Food, water, power, fuel. As for a company like
Nestle being permitted to buy a town’s water, denying residents the right to their
own rainfall … the insanity of this will soon become apparent, if it hasn’t
already; and the government in question (under the new transparency and
accountability) should be required by its own people to remedy this situation
without delay.
Self
reliance is another reason to hurry the influx of electric vehicles, including
trucks, which do indeed carry this nation, and every other. Sourcing fuel
overseas is any nation’s Achilles’s heel, and most countries don’t have
domestic oil resources to provide their own. Even if they did, the fallout from oil production on so wide a scale
would only be a lingering death for a population of 7.8 billion people. The pandemic
hasn’t caused the need for self-reliance in fuel (yet; it’s still early days),
but as the example of toilet paper demonstrates, the potential for chaos is
real, dangerous, and avoidable with planning.
Given the salutary shock it’s
receiving at this time, courtesy of the pandemic, government could be expected
to respond favorably, take steps toward self-reliance in fuel. A shift toward electric vehicles charged by solar, is arguably a necessity. Critics will
raise the question of synthetic substances: we wear them, work and play with
them, live and die with them, and they’re petrochemical. We need oil, right? No. One answer lies in
recycling. There’s enough plastic in the world. The only decision is to
use it ― and fund the factories needed for local manufacture, which brings the
issue back around to local self-reliance. Looking beyond recycling, it turns out that whatever can be made
from plastic can also be made from hemp. Plastic is only an issue if industry and
government (again, change-resistant, greed-oriented capitalism) insists on making
it so. The pandemic has shown clearly, the need for social change is upon us.
- Transparency
and accountability at government level.
- Controls on corruption and
self-interest at government level.
- Acknowledgement of a “responsibility of
compassion” at every level from government to citizen.
- A surcharge on the
super-wealthy ― individuals and industry ― who are required to make that acknowledgment
and “pay forward.”
- Review of wage structures in politicians.
- Free emergency health care.
- Wider use of reliable
technology.
- Universal income.
- Changes in how employment and joblessness are
viewed.
- Self-reliance in food, water, power and fuel.
- More localized
manufacture.
- A shift to electric vehicles, power generation that doesn’t derive
from oil or coal.
- Zero tolerance for waste.
- Incentives to the arts.
- A public
acceptance of “domestic collective” lifestyles.
These are
measures which are simple and yet sweeping. They don't depend on technology we don't possess; they don't require the dismantling of capitalism; they only require the super-rich to "pay forward" a mere fraction of what they've accumulated; they don't require any special new government system, merely a revamp on the existing model, to make it more decent, serving its citizens instead of itself and its corporate and industrial sponsors.
These measures can be undertaken with a shift
in attitude, yet they will have vast results in how the world functions (or even survives), and
how ordinary people, and specifically the poorest, live from day to day. And yes, there’s
a great deal more that could be done, but it has only a peripheral connection to the
pandemic, and that’s a topic for another time.
Images: Ma Google. Circulating at random out there.
