If don't say
something about the pandemic, I'll be the only blogger in the world who hasn't, and when I look back at this haphazard journal in a few years' time, I might wonder about the big blank space where the lockdown happened. Not that I actually want to write about COVID-19 ... and not that every syllable that can be said hasn't
been said at least eight million times already. But I'd best add my 10c's worth here, to fill the space that would otherwise be ... blank, and look nothing less than weird in 2030.
In fact, it would be far too easy sit here in South Australia and be complacent. We're one of the few places in this country that moved fast enough, decisively enough, to get on top of the spread of the virus so fast, after almost ten weeks, we have no fatalities yet. We've slowed its growth to single digits. Our curve is well and truly flattening, with (as of this morning) something like 411 cases reported (according to data from Johns Hopkins), and, yes, 0 deaths.
The magic? We have free health care. Australia made the determination to stop this thing, and (which is critic) South Australians have complied, and are complying, with the rules of social distancing, self isolation and so forth. It
works...
So here we are: locked down tight, waiting it out...
The zero statistic there is the kicker. As I said, no on has died here (yet), for which you can thank that free medical care I mentioned, (and it's top-quality medical care),
comprehensive testing, governmental decisiveness -- and public cooperation.
The reason I'm choosing today to blog rather than last week or next month, is that today we're seeing our curves flatted waaay down; and also, this is a reaction to the story that was published in yesterday's newspaper -- and apparently held back from public consumption till the inevitable panic had been brought under control. Stay with me.
First, those curves:
We're just about flat on the top of the "total cases" graphic; and
more importantly, look at at the lighter blue candles. That's the register of
new cases recorded every day. Yes.
Now, the knee-jerk would be to get complacent, sit here in a cross between stupefied disbelief and boiling fury as we watch watch the US, UK, Italy and Spain suffer through the throes of torment. Complacency would be the most profound sin South Australians could commit. I say this in response to the story published in
The Advertiser yesterday. Here it comes.
Government just saw fit to publish the findings of the study into a "do nothing plan," the kind of plan which seems to have been the UK's first strategy. PM Boris Johnson (who himself is in ICU as I write this) was all for letting the virus loose and waiting for "herd immunity" to kick in as the sick died and the healthy immunized themselves. Perhaps he and the UK's screwball government hadn't realized exactly how
many people were about to die?
The result was an attempted lockdown of the UK which came too late and, even now, is neither being properly enforced, nor even complied with. Lockdown doesn't work unless 80% of the public plays by the rules. That's the equation; you can't change it. Too many Brits won't comply, Americans en masse refuse to, and an unfortunate number of fools in NSW are also having to be forced into compliance. Hmmm. So --
What
was the prognosis, for South Australia's "do nothing plan" ...?
According the the '
Tiser yesterday, we were looking at 100% of the population infected in three months, and 12,000 dead
in this state alone.
Let that sink in. Then look at the graphs above. We're already peaking at 411 cases, in very early April; the number of new cases daily is in low single digits ... and no one has died. To date, there is a 0.0% mortality rate in South Australia -- and let's put this into perspective. We have 1.73m people here, most of them concentrated in the metropolitan area (more city views at the end of this diatribe)...
...this is a
serious city, not a fly speck. The state also has borders on three sides that are larger than some countries. Closing said borders wasn't easy, nor was it done lightly. Getting a million or more people to go home and s
tay at home almost indefinitely also hasn't been easy. I kid you not folks. If you're in any doubts about the dimensions of this state, take a look at this -- I made sure to get an accurate map, complete with scale:
But the rewards for effort are more than clear.
Go home, stay home ... close the borders, shut down the airport, standby the medical profession, from doctors at the tip of the pyramid down to the care workers at ground zero, the "boots on the ground," where it happens.
The "fun" began in earnest just before Dave and I were due to take off on our anniversary road trip. We were due to leave on the Monday morning; the state border closed at 4:00pm the next day. We called off the trip, just to be safe -- and were glad we did, when we ran into SAPOL checkpoints as close to home as Meningie. Police were stopping all westbound vehicles, even on March 24. We're now through to April 7 (which is also Mike's birthday ... being celebrated in isolation, with whatever we can find around the house to make something of the occasion, while Dave pulls extra shifts at work -- as a care worker, he's on the front lines, almost every day) ...
And on April 7, according to the Johns Hopkins data feed, we're starting to peak already. Hold your breath, South Aus. Hang tight. We're so close to seeing the swift downward swing. And as for the "do nothing plan" proposal, which would have resulted in 12,000 dead in this state by the end of June --?
Well, I know I've been one of the most vociferous in the past, when it came to chewing chunks out of the Liberal government! And I don't say I won't chew on Scott Morrison again after all this is over, if he still wants to dig the country up and sell it piece by piece, wrecking great swathes of our ecology in the process, and performing an inordinately large part in the rape and ruin of the world's ocean and atmosphere.
But (and it's a colossal "but") when the time of crisis came, Liberal moved fast. They showed a quality I hadn't believed they possessed. For American readers, "Liberal" in Aus means "Red." It's as if that orange monstrosity of yours leaped into action to save American lives at all costs, and the US accepted a -10% GNP for 2020 to do it. Say --
what?!
Yes, you read that right. The magic money tree appears to have been located after all, and is being cropped, not merely to funnel cash into the medical industry but to pay "Jobkeeper" funds, to safeguard people's employment, and rescue business, large and small alike. Morrison's plan (his words) is to "build a bridge" to get this country over the crisis, so that when we get to the other side, Australia will pick up the pieces, whole and healthy, and drive on.
Well, dang. I never believed I'd hear such sensible, compassionate, practical words out of the man's mouth. I've no doubt the speech was written for him, but here's the kicker:
Liberal is doing this. (For UK and US readers, this is the same as saying that the Tories or GOP have just swung into action, boots and all, and rescued
everybody, without counting the cost. You'd die of shock, right?)
So, where are we at this time, in South Australia?
We, ourselves, are in self-imposed isolation. Mike and I are both writers, artists, photographers, so we're using the time productively. Mike has just sold his 100th story, and having finished one novel (
The Hesperides) I'm already halfway through another (
Dark is the Valley). The pantry is well stocked; we survived the Toilet Paper Apocalypse narrowly, but we're okay. We're busy, not bored ... and as for Dave -- it's extra shifts, working where he's needed, providing essential care to the most vulnerable people you can imagine. The work isn't easy, but he's good at it; he's also strong, healthy, capable, and willing to muck in and "do the necessary."
For my part ... it's about holding down the fort, if that counts. Staying put. Being supportive. Cutting Dave loose to do extra shifts where he's needed, then get on his bike and take off for gravel roads uncharted, to top off his batteries before he heads right back to work. Uh ... "They also serve who stay at home."
If I had a message for South Aussies, it would simply be, "Don't get complacent. DO NOT STOP now. Sit tight till June, then we'll take another look at this thing."
If I had a message for American family and friends, it would be deep and sincere condolences for the pain that's being suffered in your country ... and a deep sense of bewilderment, as I observe the machinations of a government I do
not understand. Most of my family is in America, so I say this in all sincerity.
If I had a message for British family and friends, it would be identical in almost every part. I don't understand what your government is doing. I do understand pain, however. The remainder of my family is in England; and obviously, I'm as concerned for them as I am for family in the US.
For myself? I'm smart enough to know how
very lucky South Aussies are. One lady in France, on Facebook, accused me of being blase, when I mentioned how grateful I am to live where we do. Far from it. Blase? No. Lucky, and smart enough to know it? Yes.
Blogging about this virus is not pleasant. Facebook is so depressing, I can only bear an hour or so of it at max before I check out, lest I shoot myself. I have
wonderful FB friends, but their feed is an endless torrent of stories not merely of the pandemic but of the politics driving the agony which is overtaking America. Hoping to
hold the death toll to 200,000--??? Say,
what?! Megachurches still open and packed. People refusing to do social distancing? An old lady killed for making a distancing error, and the woman who killed her almost entirely unpunished? Racism gone mad, fueled by politics, while the government confiscates the very medical supplies needed to protect care workers, as if there's a plan in action to deliberately kill people in various states?! And then there's the UK. Don't get me started on the UK...
Suffice to say, I understand none of this, and it gets to me. The daily news beats me flat, and doesn't take long to do it. I seldom comment on pandemic or political stories on FB anymore, and this might be the one and only time I blog about the virus. This post is mainly to mark the time, the event, so that ten years from now
something will be online in this space to show that I was actually here while it happened, did what I could to help (though it ain't much), stayed sane, got through it ... and where my head was, while it was all playing out like a horrible nightmare on social media.
To friends and family overseas: take care and stay safe.
